Again, happy new year, 2018!
And, let’s really hope that it is a happy one, from now until the end of December. But, as always, it pays to plan for reality (however remote) and to have a general plan in place – just in case.
This isn’t actually a list of predictions; I leave those to Nostradamus. This post is more of a list of things to watch out for this year, things that I’ve noticed building the past few months/years and things that are more routine.
I just checked and the stock market is up again – starting the new year off right. It’s been “right” a lot lately, with the DOW gaining roughly 25% in overall value in the past 12 months. That’s great, especially if you’re on the winning end of the investments.
However, it also signals some trends and warnings, especially when coupled with historic patterns.
Generally, the USA sees a recession, a correction, of some kind every seven to eight years. We’re, now, overdue. And the issues that caused the last episode, the Great Recession, have largely been papered over. Papered with more and more funny money, that is. Our entire economy is seemingly built on debt and fake dollars.
We’ve seen housing bubbles, tech bubbles, and banking bubbles. Now, we face an everything bubble. I’ve been running some warning stories lately from economists and others in the know. I realize that it is hard to look into a dark future when all the news seems so good. And, that’s the point – nothing lasts forever and if it seems to good to be true, then… You get the idea.
I know for a certainty that in the future there will be a downturn. That’s a given. I will not make any predictions as to “when,” however. That’s very hard to assess when there are abundant and accurate signals to read. And, right now, we have nothing accurate to go by. Traditional valuations and all common sense have gone out the window. We’re running high and fast on irrational exuberance. That, in itself, should be a warning. Take it – maybe with a grain of salt – but take it.
By that I mean, here, in the USA and across the West, to include our interconnected trading partners, etc.
As with the economy, political upheaval is a given, universally. It’s the timing that matters and which is so hard to get right. As is, I can’t think of anyone who would call what passes for political discourse in this country “healthy.” “Polarized” is more of the word and that’s an understatement.
The age-old shenanigans of the Democrats and Republicans seems to have spawned something new. New and crazy. All over the political spectrum there are people who are unhinged and literally willing to kill others to get their “points” across. Sadly, this is nothing new, a seeming condition of human nature.
There’s an election coming next fall. (Isn’t there always?) Look forward to hearing all manner of insane lies and garbage from charlatans who want you votes. They will tell you anything, regardless of the facts and actual reality. That’s nothing new either. And, worse, worst of all maybe, is the never-ending trend of the masses who either don’t get it or don’t care.
People who will spend hours calculating “their” sports team’s prospects or hours more watching some fantasy nonsense on TV, will prosecute electoral matters on whims and feelings.
As with the mad world of central banking, there’s next to nothing you can do about it – except prepare for some fallout.
“Unrest” photo by IFSEC Global.
Terrorism and Immigration
I link these two together because they are, to a degree, a joint phenomenon. No, not all immigrants are terrorists. But the rise of the one has seen the increase in the other.
Thanks to the hellish Immigration and Naturalization Act of 1965 (more political deceit writ VERY large), the demographics have changed to the point where large parts of America no longer resemble America. And, please, find me one single mainstream politician who even mentions this, much less proposes a solution.
These changes have brought strains to our society more harsh and faster felt that just about any similar experience in human history. The narrative changed rapidly from “there will be no changes,” to “little change,” to “only a little more,” to “don’t worry, they’ll assimilate,” to “hey, YOU need to assimilate,” to (nearly) “shut up and get out of the way!” It’s astounding.
Once upon a time, and not long ago, there were essentially two types of people in America: 90% white Europeans and 10% black Africans. Things were, as you know, not always rosy between us, but at least it was “us.” And you knew who everyone was. Now, we import people from every corner of the globe, seemingly the more exotic and less Western, the better. Massive cultural differences aside, many of the newcomers come from places which have ideologies diametrically opposed to our own, our former ideals.
Add to this that many of the newbies are from places that we are actively at war with (for nothing but corporate profits) and that they are angry about it as a result, and you get people both bent on revenge and in a position to take it. Some do. Pick your favorite terror plot – in America – from the past, say, 25! Years. Yeah.
I always say the way to stop terrorism on American soil is to: 1) not bother them over there, and; 2) do not import them here. This has been lost on Washington and New York. They have their agendas, our safety and continuity be damned.
This leads me to:
Foreign Affairs (War)
It’s easy, as crazy as it seems, to forget that, as is, right now, Washington is waging several semi-major wars around the world. And, they have their hands in a dozen more. Crazed by power or drugs or both, they would like to add even more conflict.
The list here is as long as the list of other countries. However, the top candidates for 2018 may be North Korea, Iran, and Russia. If you even moderately follow the news, then you know a little about these conflicts. Know the following: We could “win” a war against Iran, with great cost, little benefit, and a host of unintended consequences. We could “win” a war against nuclear-armed North Korea, at extreme cost and with no benefits. We will not win a war with Russia. No one wins there. In fact, we all lose.
Luckily, I think the risk of full-blown confrontation with any of the three is remote. Still, it’s a chance.
There is next to nothing at all you can do to predict or survive a full-on nuclear war. However, if it’s short of that (and surely would be), then there is a chance – if you plan ahead, even for the unthinkable.
These are completely thinkable. They happen every year, each month, to almost all parts of the country. Hurricanes, fires, ice storms, thunderstorms, you name it – it will happen. Heck, right now, as I type, 75% of the land is in the grip of a micro-ice age. Here’s Scott’s advice for 10 ways to prep for a winter storm (like the one you’re in right now):
The cold may not be a disaster but it is, at a minimum, an inconvenience and a wake up call.
Will we hear it? Any of it? I trust, with this crowd, the answer is “yes.”
There’s no time like the present to start preparing or keep preparing. And, the same general plan of action will go a long way towards addressing any of the above.
We will continue to bring you new information, on all fronts, as it develops this year. And we thank you for all your attention and support. Speaking of: check out the latest fashions from Freedom Prepper! Now you can read it and wear it!
Perrin Lovett writes about freedom, firearms, and cigars (and everything else) at www.perrinlovett.me. He is none too fond of government meddling.