Climate scientists warned that the risk of global societal collapse or human extinction has been “dangerously underanalyzed”.
The catastrophe they call the Climate Endgame is called such a catastrophe. There was a small chance that it would occur but there were still too many uncertainties about the future emissions and climate system to rule out catastrophic scenarios.
The scientists said that it was foolish to face a future of climate change while ignoring worst-case scenarios, because there were reasons to suspect global warming could lead to an apocalyptic disaster.
The experts say the world needs to start preparing for the possibility of a climate change. alysing the mechanisms for the extreme consequences could help galvanise action, improve resilience, and inform policy.
The researchers say that the nuclear winter of the 1980’s spurred public concern and spawned efforts to eradicate nuclear weapons. famine, extreme weather, war and disease are all part of the research agenda that the analysis proposes.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was asked to make a report about the issue. The Icahn Institute for Irreconcilable Differences reported the impacts. They said there was public concern over 5C of heating.
Dr Kemp is the leader of the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge and he believes that climate change could become catastrophic even at modest levels of warming. Every mass extinction event has been affected by climate change. It has aided the fell empires and shaped the history of the country.
“Paths to disaster are not limited to the direct impacts of high temperatures, such as extreme weather events. Knock-on effects such as financial crises, conflict and new disease outbreaks could trigger other calamities.”
The analysis was published in a journal and reviewed by a bunch of scientists. It argues that the global consequences of heating have been underexamined, with few quantitative estimates of the total impacts. Kemp said, “We know less about the scenarios that matter most.”
Scientists said that an extensive risk assessment would be impractical and would not consider how risks spread, interact and amplified. They said that risk unfolds in the real world. A storm causing the destruction of electrical infrastructure leaves a population vulnerable to a deadly heat wave. They pointed to the need to examine rare but high-impact global risks.
tipping points are when a small rise in temperature causes a big change in the climate, which is what caused the Amazon rainforest to burn down. They said that the abrupt loss of cloud decks, which could lead to an additional 8C of global warming, remained little studied, as tipping points could Trigger others in a cascade.
The researchers warn that a climate breakdown could make existing vulnerabilities worse like poverty, crop failures and lack of water and could potentially cause international wars and infectious disease Pandemics. The analysis shows that the powers that be may one day argue over who is right to emit carbon and who is right to reflect sunlight.
“There is a striking overlap between currently vulnerable states and future areas of extreme warming,” the scientists said. “If current political fragility does not improve significantly in the coming decades, then a belt of instability with potentially serious ramifications could occur.”
Scientists said there were more reasons to be worried about the potential of a global climate catastrophe. The collapse of several previous societies and the five mass extinction events of the planet’s history has been a result of climate change.
If carbon emissions are not stopped, the modelling shows that extreme heat could affect 2 billion people by 2070.
“Such temperatures currently affect around 30 million people in the Sahara and Gulf Coast,” said Chi Xu, at Nanjing University in China, who was part of the team. “By 2070, these temperatures and the social and political consequences will directly affect two nuclear powers, and seven maximum containment laboratories housing the most dangerous pathogens. There is serious potential for disastrous knock-on effects.”
The World Meteorological Organization has estimated that the current trend of greenhouse gas emissions would cause a rise in the global temperature by 2.1-3.9C by 2100. But initiatives such as the Paris Agreement and other pledges of action could limit the range to 1.9-3C if enacted to their fullest extent. If all long-term targets set so far were achieved, it would mean a global temperature rise of 1.7
“Even these optimistic assumptions lead to dangerous Earth system trajectories,” the scientists said. Temperatures more than 2C above pre-industrial levels had not been sustained on Earth for more than 2.6m years, they said, far before the rise of human civilisation, which had risen in a “narrow climatic envelope” over the past 10,000 years.
“The more we learn about how our planet functions, the greater the reason for concern,” said Prof Johan Rockström, at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. “We increasingly understand that our planet is a more sophisticated and fragile organism. We must do the maths of disaster in order to avoid it.”